TBM. CFB
Florida State Seminoles* vs Auburn Tigers.
The upcoming BCS National Championship is going to be decided when the No. 2 Auburn Tigers take the field against the top-ranked Florida State Seminoles. After a wild year of collegiate football in 2013, these are the two teams left standing at the top. FSU was fortunate enough to go unbeaten and do so in convincing fashion, while Auburn shook off an early-season loss to LSU to become an absolute powerhouse down the stretch. We are left with arguably the most exciting matchup of the season and one that should be an absolute joy to watch due to the teams and players involved. Perhaps the only way for things to be more thrilling is to have a wager on the outcome. If you are seeking advice on which way to lean in this one, look no further. I have you covered. Keep reading for information on how to catch this matchup, plus my picks and predictions against the spread.
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FLORIDA STATE'S SEASON TO DATE
To say the least, we caught on to Florida State a lot earlier. At least, the stats did. What the Seminoles were doing to early opponents wasn't the normal beating-up of bad opponents. The Noles started slowly at times, but otherwise overwhelmed a bunch of decent teams. Maryland and Pitt aren't amazing, but FSU beat them by a combined 104-13. They spotted Boston College an early 17-3 lead, then cruised, 45-17, the rest of the way. When the Seminoles traveled to Clemson and took out the third-ranked Tigers, 51-14, the world started to figure out what the numbers were trying to tell them: this team was pretty ridiculous. And while we waited for FSU to randomly struggle on the road, as the Noles have been known to do in previous years, it just never happened. They beat an undefeated Miami team by 27. They beat Wake Forest and Syracuse by a combined 118-6. They beat Florida by 30 in the Swamp. They started slowly against Duke in the ACC title game and still won by 38. Even though we weren't all willing to see it early on, Florida State has looked like a championship team from basically the first quarter of the first game of the year. Jameis Winston provided an instant upgrade over E.J. Manuel (a first-round Draft pick, by the way), the offensive line got older and meaner, and -- thanks to absurdly good recruiting and development -- the defence absorbed losses up front and on the coaching staff with ease. Former Nick Saban assistant Jeremy Pruitt installed a Saban-esque boa constrictor defence, and FSU has more than taken advantage of its talent. The Seminoles produced the No. 1 offense and the No. 2 defence in the country, according to the F/+ ratings. Auburn might be a team of destiny -- we'll find out soon enough -- but the most difficult test still remains.
AUBURN'S SEASON TO DATE
The Tigers held off Washington State, 31-24, in the opener and needed a late, clutch touchdown to beat Mississippi State at home. They fell to LSU on September 21, and even though they showed spunk in battling back to only lose by two touchdowns, they still lost by two touchdowns. A 30-22 home win over Ole Miss was seen a sign that 8-4 or 9-3 was within reach, nothing greater. Florida State has not really been tested this year as they have won every game by double digits. The ACC Champions look to have zero weaknesses, on offense FSU ranks #2 in scoring averaging 53.0 ppg and just as impressive the Seminoles defense ranks #1 in points allowed with just 10.7 ppg. Most of the attention has been on red shirt freshman Heisman Trophy winning QB Jameis Winston but when you examine their personnel you realize the Seminoles are loaded on both sides of the ball.
But the Tigers just kept winning. They upset Texas A&M, 45-41, in College Station. They fended off potential letdown games, beating Arkansas and Tennessee by a combined 50 points.And then a season of massive improvement began to take on a team-of-destiny feel. Auburn beat Georgia with a miracle catch of a batted pass, then beat Alabama with a miracle return of a missed field goal. The Tigers destroyed Missouri's defence for 59 points in the SEC Championship. And then they watched as Ohio State fell to Michigan State, opening the door for the Tigers to return to the national championship for the second time in four seasons. The SEC dominance in the BCS National Championship game looks to extend to 8 straight years as Auburn Tigers carry the hopes of the conference. The improbable run for Auburn has seen Tigers go from unranked team to the BCS Title game with a first year coach to boot. Coach Gus Malzahn remembers what it was like winning as Offensive Coordinator for the Tigers but this time around he is facing much better opponent. On the year Auburn has pulled out miracle wins on a regular basis and the Tigers might need a little magic to beat talented Florida State. Auburn great running attack carries their offense, on the year Tigers average 40.2 ppg but it’s the questionable Tigers defense that will decide this BCS game. Auburn defense has been suspect against top opponents this year, on the season Tigers are allowing 24.0 ppg but against top 4 ranked teams Auburn allowed: Missouri 42, Alabama 28, Georgia 38, and A&M 41.
Preview and Prediction.
The Florida State Seminoles (ACC, 13-0 SU, 11-2 ATS, 10-3 OU) were without question the best team in college football over the course of the regular season. With the second-best scoring offense in the nation averaging 53 points per game and the best scoring defense in the nation allowing just 10.7 points per game, the Seminoles ran roughshod over every opponent they faced. They covered just about every spread the sportsbooks could throw at them. Florida State finished the season on a perfect 6-0 against-the-spread run, including a cover as a 58-point favorite in an 80-14 win over Idaho.
Seminoles were money in the bank all season, and they have been money in the bank at bowl time. Facing huge point spreads during the season, freshman quarterback Jameis Winston led FSU to an 11-2 record against the spread mark. Both teams enter the BCS National Championship Game on five-game bowl win streaks. And the SEC enters this game on a seven-year title streak, which has seen SEC schools not only win every national title, but cover the spread each time as well, according to theBCS title game odds history. One of those winning streaks must come to an end on Monday, January 6 when the top two teams in college football fight for the championship at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Florida State opened as a 6.5-point favourite but had been bet to almost nine points as of Jan. 2. The number's currently settling around 8.5.
Florida State won all but one of its contests by 27 or more points and also stepped up its game against ranked opponents. In four matchupsagainst opponents in the Top 25 at the time of kickoff, FSU scored 200 points and conceded a mere 35 points total.
Give credit to the Seminoles defense for this outstanding run of success, as it ranked as the No. 1 unit in the country in points allowed. That helped the team slap together a margin of victory that averaged out to just more than 42 points per contest in 2013. Quarterback Jameis Winston, the school’s freshman Heisman Award-winning sensation, deserves more than his fair share of accolades. The elite signal-caller finished the season with 3,820 yards and 38 touchdowns on 237-of-349 completions. The Seminoles lay claim to the most complete and dominant team in all of college football. Florida State ranks sixth in total offense with the most efficient passer in the country in Winston and a potent rushing attack led by Devonta Freeman. Their third-ranked defense makes the Seminoles the only team ranked in the top 10 in both offense and defense. Florida State also ranks second in the nation in turnover margin, with an impressive plus-17 differential. Auburn’s offense may stack up against the Seminoles, but on the defensive side of the ball, Florida State runs away with it.
After starting the season off 3-1 straight-up and 2-2 against the spread, Auburn (SEC, 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, 8-5 OU) finished a perfect 9-0 straight-up and against the spread with two outright upsets as a double-digit underdog.
Averaging an astounding 335.7 rushing yards per game, the Auburn rushing attack was the best in the country despite residing in college football's toughest conference, the SEC. From a bizarre Hail Mary catch against Georgia to the field goal kick return that shocked the nation against Alabama, Auburn has the look and feel of a team of destiny. The Tigers may enter the game as an underdog, but no one in college football is taking them lightly... Facing Auburn is not like facing anything else. Everything I said above is true. Auburn really could struggle to get a push on FSU's line, and relying on confusing FSU and repeatedly calling the perfect play might be too much to ask for.
But it still might not be too much to ask for. The effortlessness with which Malzahn waved his magic wand in late-November and early-December was staggering. Not everything he called worked, at least against Alabama (and Georgia in the fourth quarter), but he was constantly three steps ahead of opposing coordinators. And in the red zone, his play-calling became even more effective. More important than schemes and play-calling, however? His personnel got more and more dialed in. In September, we referred to Marshall as a converted defensive back playing quarterback. By the end of the regular season, he was the best option quarterback in college football. In the first five weeks of the season, Mason was a grinder, averaging just 4.8 yards per carry for an option offense that wasn't particularly scary. And then he rushed for 468 yards (6.2 per carry) against perhaps the best two run defenses in the SEC. In the first five games, Auburn plugged away with 242 rushing yards and 29 points per game. In its final four games, the Tigers averaged 402 rushing yards and 48 points per game. This offense reached a special place late in the year, gashing good defenses with an ease I hadn't seen in a long time.
FSU's defense is big and mean and will have been well-drilled in stopping what Auburn wants to do. And hell, maybe this long break between games will be detrimental to Auburn's overall rhythm. But it's impossible to count this offense out after what we saw late in the year. It was too impressive. Winston's maturity and patience backfire on him sometimes when it comes to waiting too long in the pocket, and Auburn will absolutely take advantage of that. Auburn might struggle to leverage you into passing downs sometimes, but when it does, it finishes off the drive. The Tigers' pass rush comes at you with Dee Ford from one side (8.5 sacks, 17 hurries) and some combination of LaDarius Owens, Carl Lawson, and Elijah Daniel from the other (combined: 8.5 sacks, 29 hurries), and even if they don't bring you down -- and it's certainly difficult to bring Winston down -- they rush your decision-making process and force mistakes. Auburn gets more aggressive the further you move down the field, and while there's no guarantee those risks will pay off against such a brutal, deep offense, the Tigers will still have a chance to make plays. They did so when it counted against Alabama, and when Missouri got a little desperate in trying to keep up with Auburn's offensive output, Auburn shut Mizzou down more, too.
If Auburn can score enough points early and stay either ahead or really close in this game, the risks may find more reward as Florida State gets a little bit tight. FSU is methodical in pace only -- when the Seminoles score, it doesn't take them many plays to do it -- and the longer Auburn forces FSU to take risks of its own and make plays when it needs to, the more the Tigers can generate an advantage.
It probably goes without saying that Auburn wants a high-scoring game. If the Tigers can generate some easy early scores and force FSU to keep up with its high-octane, high-energy attack, then not only will AU be defining the game, but it will force the Seminoles to do something they haven't had to do all year: win a close game. Quite a few people seem to be leaning toward Auburn because the Noles haven't been tested. (Insert Lou Holtz's "steel is forged through fire" line here.) But that only matters if Auburn can actually test them. While the Seminoles' schedule hasn't been difficult, the stats still favor them by double digits for a reason: they've been dominant. They haven't been tested in part because they've aced potential tests by halftime. The longer this game stays close, the more it favors Auburn, but Auburn still faces burden of proof. If Missouri scored on seven of its first 11 drives against Auburn in the SEC title game, an in-rhythm FSU offense could score on nine. Auburn's defense is good but hasn't proven it can stop an offense of this caliber, and while we are defining this game as the battle of FSU's defense and Auburn's offense, for that to matter, Auburn has to come up with answers on defense, too.
We can hope for a great game here, and we might get it, but the odds of that are about as good as the odds of FSU winning handily. Malzahn's magic could take hold, but this has felt like FSU's year for a long time now.....
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WHY FLORIDA STATE WILL COVER THE BCS TITLE GAME SPREAD
- The last two Heisman Trophy winners who have appeared in the national title game have won. Mark Ingram did it in 2009 for Alabama and Auburn’s Cam Newton followed the next year. Famous Jameis Winston will try to make it 3-for-3.
- Auburn’s pass defense is shoddy and won’t be a match for Winston, who threw 38 TD passes and for 3,820 yards, or 10.9 yards an attempt. FSU’s starting receivers are 6-5 and 6-0 compared to 5-10 and 5-11 for Auburn’s cornerbacks. If the Tigers can’t put some pressure on Winston, it could be a long night.
- Auburn’s strength is its multiple-option rushing attack, which led the nation at an astonishing 336 yards per game. However, the Seminoles were the country’s top defense and don’t really have to respect the pass, which should make the Tigers’ task even more arduous.
- Florida State averaged 42 points per game and didn’t have a close game all season – a 48-34 victory over Boston College in September being the only game within a 14-point margin. The Noles blasted Top 10 opponents Clemson 51-14 on the road and Miami 41-14 before disposing of Duke 45-7 in the ACC Championship Game. Meanwhile, Auburn won four games in the last 1:20 including the incredible 34-28 win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl. Its only loss was a 35-21 decision at LSU in September.
- Auburn, which was 3-9 last season, is the 10th team to play for the national championship following a losing season. Those teams are 1-8 in those contests.
THE BET*
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES -8.5
It can be a scary bet to lay more than a touchdown against the No. 2 team in the nation, but don’t let that deter you from Florida State in this one. FSU has proven that, not only can it beat the best teams in the country, but it can blow them out. In the four games against ranked opponents this year, the Seminoles won by a combined score of 200-35.
The SEC dominance ends at 7 straight titles as Florida State dominates this game from the opening kickoff to final buzzer. Heisman Trophy winners don't always play great in bowl games but this FSU team is built to be more than just the Jameis Winston show. The FSU defense has dominated all year long and Seminoles do it one more time holding Auburn rushing attack to season low yards. Florida State Seminoles win and cover.
Predicted Score: Auburn Tigers 17, Florida State Seminoles 41.
