BEST BETS - NFL Wild Card Round.

TBM. NFL

*Updated*

                                 BEST BETS - NFL WILDCARD ROUND 2013/14 SEASON. 

                                                                    

                                                                                                                                  

          **BEST BET WINNER**

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco -2.5

Final Score: Green Bay Packers 20, San Fransisco 49ers 23.

Preview & Score Prediction.

San Francisco 49ers will make another push for the Super Bowl. This trip may be a little more difficult that the one they took last year. Thanks to being in one of the strongest divisions in the league, the 49ers 12-4 record was not enough to get them the division title. That went to the 14-2 Seattle Seahawks. What this means is that the Niners will have to take their 12-4 record on the road for the first week of the playoffs. They will have to make it to the Super Bowl via the road. The Niners are coming off of a season finale in which the beat a very game Cardinals team, who had playoff aspiration on their own. They would end up winning the game on a Phil Dawson 40-yard field goal with time expiring off of the clock – giving the Niners a 23-20 win.

The Packers have had a rough go of this season due to injuries. They began the season strong in first place, but lost two starting receivers to injuries and then their Pro-Bowl tight end to a neck injury. Finally, they would lose their All-Pro quarterback to a fractured collarbone. But that did not stop them from fighting back to reclaim the division crown in the last game of the season. They would beat the Chicago Bears 33-28 to seal the deal.

While I understand the concerns about the weather (and it’s a little puzzling that the 49ers are admittedly practicing in 60-degree temps instead of trying to acclimate to the cold early), I don’t think it matters much because, even with the addition of Eddie Lacy, the 49ers are more of a cold-weather team, stylistically, than the Packers are. Not only do they have a running game that can equal the Packers’ and a defense that far surpasses Green Bay’s (and with Clay Matthews out, that becomes even more of a mismatch), but they have Anquan Boldin, who we learned last year knows how to play a little playoff football. He’s built for postseason play, and with the bitter cold and whipping winds at Lambeau, the 49ers will be better off having his reliable hands and ability to catch tough balls in the short range (as well as absorb the hits that come with those receptions). The 49ers like to play very physically, especially in January, and I can’t see the Packers withstanding that for 60 minutes. Oh, in two career starts against the Packers, Kaepernick has a passer rating or 112.5 and 203 rushing yards....not exactly champing at the bit to back a Clay Matthews-less Green Bay defence that has surrendered 26 or more points in nine of their last ten outings....

At the start of the year the Green Bay Packers were my NFC pick to make it to the Super Bowl. Even after their Week 1 defeat in San Francisco, I felt pretty good about it. Since then, things have changed. While the Packers have gotten a great year out of Eddie Lacy, the defence has not had the kind of rebound season that I expected. This leads us to the first big key of the game.

Can the Packers stop the 49ers run game? It certainly helps Green Bay that fullback Bruce Miller is on IR. The 49ers used a two-back set 374 times this season, which is 120 more times than every other team. The problem for the Packers is it might not matter who is blocking for San Fran. Trying to stop the lethal 1-2 punch of Gore and Hunter will be a very poor GB front seven.  B.J. Raji is rated dead last against the run among defensive tackles, and A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones have been almost as bad in support. The only guy in the front seven to rate positively against the run is Mike Daniels. Last week, the Bears running backs only had to break three tackles on their way to a five yards per carry average. Perry, Neal, Mulumba, and Lattimore were among the suspects who got abused.

It's highly unlikely Colin Kaepernick repeats his 412 yard performance from Week 1, or his huge read-option day from last year's playoffs, but a quality run game should make things a bit easier on the young QB. He finished above-average in his QB ranking this year, but he's also the only QB in the league who had to play the league's top two defenses twice. Also, only Philip Rivers had a better rating on third down this year. With all this to work with, we come to another big advantage for the 49ers. Coaching. Since Jim Harbaugh took over, they are 3-0 against the Packers. Mike McCarthy is a good coach, but he's built up a really suspect reputation for his in-game management. In the latest example, McCarthy had to be talked into going for it on 4th down during Green Bay's final drive against Chicago. He also elected to go for the extra point instead of going for 2 in the second half of that game. Whether it's play-calling or clock management, Harbaugh holds a clear edge on gamedays.

The final key to this game will be turnovers. That is a no-brainer for most NFL games, but the 49ers have won this category 5-1 in the three games between them the last two years. If the Packers can't find a way to make some big plays on defense, this game could get ugly. Adding to the drama in this game will be the weather. It's expected to be around -12 at kickoff, and it might even go down as one of the top 10 coldest games in NFL history. At those kind of temperatures both teams might be at a disadvantage, but if it comes down to a grind and pound game, you have to think the 49ers are better equipped for that type of battle.

For San Francisco backers, going on the road hasn't bothered the 49ers this season. San Francisco is 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road, including an impressive outright upset over Arizona on Sunday. The 49ers finished third in the NFL in scoring defense allowing just 17 points per game, and the computer likes them to win and cover here.

The Green Bay Packers appeared to be down and out after going 0-4-1 SU and 0-5 ATS in the five games immediately following quarterback Aaron Rodgers' injury. But with Chicago and Detroit also struggling in the second half of the season, Green Bay was able to stay in the hunt. "Green Bay's story as an underdog is different with Rodgers under centre, as the Pack are 5-1 ATS as a home dog with Rodgers playing," said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com. " But overall, the Pack is 1-7 ATS in its past eight games as a dog, much of that negative trend coming during his seven-week injury absence  this year."

San Francisco is 3-0 SU and ATS over its last three games against the Packers, including last year's 45-31 win that still stands as the most memorable game in Colin Kaepernick's young career. Each of the last six games between these two teams have gone OVER the total with over 60 points scored in each of the last two. Green Bay's defense has failed to contain Kaepernick both times the Packers have met the 49ers with him under center. The key to this game will likely be Green Bay's offense, and whether or not it can turn this game into a shootout.

I would love to take the Packers in this game (mainly due to my love of Rodgers) but they enter the contest with far too many question marks. Is Rodgers on top of his game and in sync with his receivers? Can McCarthy avoid getting out-coached by Harbaugh? Will the defense stop the run or create any turnovers?  Is Lacy's ankle healthy enough for a big game? Can they create pressure without Matthews? Given all the uncertainty, the only option here is the 49ers. It's a case of what you see is what you get, I'll lay the -2.5 and not look back.

Predicted Score: Green Bay Packers(Aaron Rodgers) 21, San Francisco 49ers 30.

It should be an enjoyable viewing experience with these two class acts going head to head!

                                                                                                                                  

                            

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles -2

*BEST BET LOSER*

FINAL SCORE: New Orleans Saints 26, Philadelphia Eagles 24.

Preview & Score Prediction.

The Eagles ended the year as one of the hottest teams in football. After Week Eight, they won every game except for one, including their Week 17 contest with the Dallas Cowboys that gave them the NFC East title. Philadelphia was dominant for much of that stretch, winning by an average of 16 points.

Philadelphia’s turnaround can be traced back to when Nick Foles was inserted into the starting lineup. He took over for an injured Michael Vick and became one of the best signal callers in the league. Foles led the NFL with a 119.2 passer rating. In 13 games, he threw for 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions. With New Orleans also sporting a top quarterback, this contest could turn into a shootout. Drew Brees had another great season, finishing No.2 in the NFL in completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns. 

The Eagles move the ball incredibly well (T-1st in NFL in yards per play), but they are slightly hindered by their mediocre 3rd-down conversion rate (38.97%, 12th) and TD% in the red zone (52.63&, 18th). I’m speculating here, but I honestly think this is a testament to Chip Kelly’s offensive gameplanning, because I think the Eagles are pretty limited at WR post-Jeremy-Maclin, and that’s the main reason they’re just average in these areas, but amazing elsewhere. My harebrained theory is that he can make good players look great with a lot of field to work with, but he is limited when the field is cut down. Just ahead of McCoy is quarterback Nick Foles, who took over for Michael Vick to become the NFL’s top rated passer with 27 touchdowns to two interceptions this season. The NFL’s ninth leading receiving DeSean Jackson was on the other end of most of Foles pinpoint passes, amassing 82 catches for 1,332 yards and nine touchdowns. Foles and Jackson will try to pick apart a Saints secondary ranked No. 2 in the NFL with 194.1 passing yards allowed per game, and the fourth best pass rush in league with Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette’s recording 24.5 of the team’s 49.0 total sacks.

While the Saints may have the advantage in the passing game, no team has a better rushing attack than the Eagles. They are No.1 in rushing yards, led by LeSean McCoy and his 1,607 yards. He played especially well down the stretch averaging 130 yards per game in the last four games. McCoy will look to take advantage of a New Orleans defense that ranked 19th in run defense. At most Las Vegas sportsbooks, the Saints are 2.5-point underdogs. New Orleans finished with a better record than Philadelphia and was favored 13 times in 2013. However, their record on the road gives the Eagles the advantage. At home, the Saints went undefeated, winning six games by at least three scores. Away from New Orleans, the team lost five times, and never won by more than one score. New Orleans will travel to the Northeast, where cities are expected to experience freezing temperatures. Even though the Saints have trouble in the outdoors, Philadelphia’s head coach isn’t taking anything for granted. He’s well aware that traditional warm-weather teams have won in the postseason.

The Saints have more playoff experience than the Eagles, and with a game on the line I'd probably feel more comfortable with a Payton-Brees combination than Kelly-Foles.  That said, it's hard to ignore the home-road dichotomy for the Saints and dome teams have a terrible track record in cold weather games. Stopping the run isn't something that New Orleans does well, and now they are tasked with slowing down the league's leading rusher. 

The Saints allowed 111.6 rushing yards per game and 4.61 yards per carry this season. The Eagles, meanwhile, led the NFL in rushing yards and rushing plays of 10-plus yards, and had the highest percentage of rushing plays that gained 4 yards or more. As long as Philly stays committed to the ground game, everything else should fall into place. I'll roll with them for the win and cover.

 I do think they have a shot to slow down the Saints. Because, Drew Brees.....

Predicted Score: New Orleans Saints 31, Philadelphia Eagles 38.

                                                                                                                                  

(singles) 

> *Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 @ Indianapolis Colts. *winner

FINAL SCORE: KC Chiefs 44, Indianapolis Colts 45.

H2H

Kansas City Cheifs @ 2.00 *loser*