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BEST BETS - NFL PLAYOFFS WEEK 2 2013/14 SEASON.
**UPDATED**
San Francisco 49ers (PK) @ Carolina Panthers
@ 1.92
FINAL SCORE: San Francisco 23, Carolina Panthers 10.
On wild-card weekend, the San Francisco 49ers went on the road and defeated the Green Bay Packers to advance to the next round of the playoffs. On Sunday, they’ll look to do the same thing to the Carolina Panthers. San Francisco had one of the best regular seasons in the NFL, tying for second with a 12-4 record. However, they play in the NFC West with the 13-3 Seattle Seahawks, and were forced to make the playoffs as the No.5 seed. Last week, they visited Green Bay as favorites. In the divisional round, every road team is an underdog, except for the 49ers. They are giving the Panthers one point, who also went 12-4 during the year.
Carolina is not favoured, even though they beat San Francisco in their Week 10 head-to-head matchup. The Panthers left Candlestick Park with a 10-9 victory on Nov. 10, giving them their fifth straight victory at the time. Both quarterbacks had, perhaps, their worst games of the season. In a winning effort, Cam Newton completed 50 percent of his passes for 169 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. Colin Kaepernick was even less effective, throwing for just 91 yards and registering a 42.0 passer rating. After each signal caller struggled against the opposing defense, Kaepernick may have the better chance of playing well this time around. He’s put up very good numbers in four career postseason games, registering a 110.9 rating last season, and rushing for 98 yards in the 49ers win over the Packers. Newton has been in the league just as long, but he has no playoff experience.
Cam Newton's playoff debut, and he hasn't been one to wilt on a big stage. Three weeks ago, he clinched the NFC South title with a fourth-quarter comeback over New Orleans. Three years ago at Auburn, he dominated the SEC Championship game (408 total yards, six touchdowns) and delivered a national-championship win over Oregon (265 passing yards, two TD passes, 64 rushing yards). Drafted first overall in 2011, he passed for the most yards ever in a debut (422). His ensuing Panthers career hasn't been as consistently dazzling, but he still can make a grand entrance to the playoffs. The 49ers defense, however, didn't let Newton thrive in their Nov. 10 game, and they have the linebacker corps capable of neutralizing him. Newton's counterpart, the 49ers' Colin Kaepernick, provided a blueprint for a successful playoff debut last season against Green Bay. This 49ers defense is better than that Packers' unit, however.
49ERS
Colin Kaepernick, barring injury, can't have a worse outing than his career-low 91 passing yards in the last game against the Panthers. This time, Michael Crabtree is in the lineup, fresh from his Lambeau Field masterpiece (eight catches, 125 yards). Also available is tight end Vernon Davis, who left with a second-quarter concussion against the Panthers on Nov. 10. Crabtree, Davis and Anquan Boldin will need to find windows in the Panthers' zone and make more clutch, third-down catches. Obviously, the 49ers must protect Kaepernick better from one of the NFL's best fronts, led by the sack tandem of Greg Hardy (15 sacks) and Charles Johnson (11). Cornerback Captain Munnerlyn has returned five of his seven career interceptions for touchdowns. Safety Mike Mitchell's four interceptions this season were twice as many as his entire Raiders career (2009-12).
Starting running backs are averaging only 43 rushing yards against the Panthers over the past 20 games. But Frank Gore nearly doubled that figure with his 16 carries for 82 yards in Week 10. Defensive tackle Star Lotulelei will clog the middle, but it's Luke Kuechly's sideline-to-sideline speed that makes him the Panthers' most dominant tackler. Fullbacks Will Tukuafu and Anthony Dixon must knock Kuechly out of lanes, something left guard Mike Iupati also could do on the 49ers' favorite power runs. Carolina's zone defense -- especially linebackers Kuechly and Thomas Davis -- will make it harder for Colin Kaepernick to scramble for the big gains he had at Green Bay. The Panthers are allowing just 86.9 rushing yards per game (second only to Arizona; 84.4).
- Crabtree has 28 catches and three touchdowns in his last four postseason games.
- Kaepernick has 362 rushing yards in four playoff games for San Francisco, which can tie Pittsburgh for the most championship game appearances (15) since 1970 with a win.
Wide receiver Michael Crabtree missed the first matchup against Carolina while recovering from surgery on his Achilles' tendon, as mentioned above he offered a reminded of what an impact player he can be with eight catches for 125 yards in last week's 23-20 win at frigid Green Bay. Tight end Vernon Davis also was a non-factor in the earlier meeting after suffering a second-quarter concussion, but he reeled in a 28-yard scoring pass last week for his sixth TD reception in six postseason games. Having the duo on the field should make life easier for running back Frank Gore and Kaepernick. The 49ers have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season, but are giving up an average of 21.3 points in the last three games after holding nine of the previous 11 opponents to 17 points or fewer.
San Francisco 49ers Trends -
49ers are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 games
- 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the divisional round
- 49ers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in January
- 49ers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games on the road
- 49ers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games
49ers are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 games
- 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the divisional round
- 49ers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in January
- 49ers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games on the road
- 49ers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games
PANTHERS
Cam Newton has passed for at least 200 yards in only three of the Panthers' past eight games, completing over 20 passes only once in that span. He will be more elusive than Aaron Rodgers last week, but the 49ers pass rush looks in full gear with Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks. Smith played just 12 snaps last meeting in his first game back from personal issues. The Panthers passing attack won't be as potent if Steve Smith struggles (or plays at all) with a knee sprain. Tight end Greg Olsen (team-high 73 catches, six touchdowns) will be a challenge for linebacker Patrick Willis, as well as safeties Eric Reid and Donte Whitner. Brandon LaFell starts opposite Steve Smith and could be a threat in the slot, where the 49ers are likely to deploy Perrish Cox again in place of Carlos Rogers (hamstring).
DeAngelo Williams, Carolina's all-time leading rusher, wove his way through the 49ers defense for the only touchdown in their Week 10 meeting. Williams (843 yards, 4.2 per carry) has more speed and is a greater receiving threat than the 49ers' Gore, at least in the eyes of 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Cam Newton is the Panthers' other top threat, and NaVorro Bowman might be summoned to chase after him as he did so well in 2011 against Philadelphia's Michael Vick. Newton, who ran for just 15 yards in Week 10, is Pro Bowl bound along with center Ryan Kalil and fullback Mike Tolbert. "As a nose guard, you look forward to games like this, where there is a lot of emphasis on the run," said the 49ers' Glenn Dorsey.
Newton threw for his lowest yardage total (3,379) in his three seasons but established career highs in touchdowns (24) and completion percentage (61.7) while showing his mettle at crunch time by directing four game-winning drives. Newton is also an integral part of a running game that features DeAngelo Williams as well as contributions from Mike Tolbert and Jonathan Stewart, who expects to play for the first time in a month. A major concern is the status of veteran wide receiver Steve Smith's sprained left knee, with Panthers coach Ron Rivera admitting after Thursday's practice that Smith was not his "normal self." These is little concern over a defense - led by Greg Hardy, Charles Johnson and tackling machine Luke Kuechly - that registered a league-high 60 sacks and allowed the second-fewest points per game (15.1).
Carolina Panthers Trends - Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home
- Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. NFC teams
- Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in the playoffs
- Panthers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games
- Panthers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. San Francisco
- Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. NFC teams
- Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in the playoffs
- Panthers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games
- Panthers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. San Francisco
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Jim Harbaugh can become the first coach since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger to advance to conference championship games in each of his first three seasons. But Harbaugh must first beat his former Chicago Bears teammate and Panthers counterpart Ron Rivera, whose job seemed tenuous after a 1-3 start. Rivera then morphed into "Riverboat Ron" with a gambling, aggressive style that's helped translate into wins in 11 of Carolina's past 12. This is Rivera's playoff debut in three seasons at Carolina. Harbaugh does not believe his assistants have been distracted by job prospects elsewhere, and more success would seem to enhance there résumés.
Overcoming harsh elements -- oh, and the host Green Bay Packers -- should instill the 49ers with confidence that they can conquer anything in their path to Super Bowl XLVIII. Two years ago, the New York Giants knocked off the defending champion Packers at chilly Lambeau en route to the Lombardi Trophy. Winning again on the road won't be easy, but a fully stocked 49ers team makes that possible at Carolina. Cam Newton's inexperience and Steve Smith's injury will hurt the Panthers' chances. The 49ers will take an eight-game win streak into the NFC Championship game next Sunday.
Pick the 49ers.
PREDICTED SCORE: San Francisco 49ers 24, Carolina Panthers 20.
(other plays to consider)
*WINNER*
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
*FIRST HALF HANDICAP* -6 @ 2.02
*FIRST HALF HANDICAP* -6 @ 2.02
*COMPLETED*
**BEST BET - MONEY BACK
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks -8
FINAL SCORE: New Orleans Saints 15, Seattle Seahawks 23.
FINAL SCORE: New Orleans Saints 15, Seattle Seahawks 23.
Preview & Score Prediction.
The Seattle Seahawks are 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS over their last 16 games at home and are currently going off as an eight-point home favorite against the New Orleans Saints. Seattle finished the regular season with the NFC's top record, going 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Allowing just 14.4 points per game and 273.6 yards per game, the Seahawks separated themselves from the pack with the best defense in the NFL.The Seahawks have been dominant at home and have won five straight playoff games in Seattle over the years. They have won and covered five of seven meetings with the Saints in recent times. Ranking eighth in the NFL in scoring offense with 26.1 points per game and fourth in rushing with 136.8 yards per game, Seattle has a strong offense to go along with its elite defense.
New Orleans entered last week's game against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS record in their previous six road games. But as a three-point underdog against a hot Eagles team, the Saints had an excellent day on the ground while rushing for 185 yards. New Orleans came away with a 26-24 upset on a last-second field goal. That was just the Saints' fifth playoff cover in 15 tries dating back to 1988, according to the Saints-Seahawks betting report.
Drew Brees's road struggles continued as the star quarterback passed for just 250 yards with two interceptions, but the team found a way to win on the road.
The Seahawks suffered just one home loss in 2013, and the Saints know firsthand how difficult it can be to play in Seattle. The two teams met on "Monday Night Football" in Week 13. In a contest between the teams with the top two records in the NFC, Seattle dominated the visitors, 34-7. Drew Brees, whose season-low had been 236 passing yards, managed to throw for just 147 yards on 38 attempts. The Saints running game, which usually isn’t very effective, was worse than usual. Four different running backs combined to pick up just 45 yards on 16 carries.
The Saints have the No.2 passing attack in the NFL. Seattle, though, matches up well with the No.6 seed in the conference. The Seahawks boast the league’s top pass defense, allowing just 172 yards through the air per game. They’ve held the likes of Brees, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Eli Manning and Carson Palmer all to less than 180 yards passing. Cornerback Richard Sherman led the league with eight interceptions, while free safety Earl Thomas added five in the regular season. Both Sherman and Thomas were selected to the Pro Bowl, along with strong safety Kam Chancellor. Offensively, the Seahawks also match up well with their opponent. Russell Wilson’s 101.2 passer rating is one of the best in football, but he isn’t asked to carry the offense with his arm, throwing for just 3,357 yards. His 539 rushing yards, as well as Marshawn Lynch’s 1,257 yards, give the club the No.4 rushing offense in the league. The Saints were second against the pass in the regular season, but 19th against the run, which could prove to hurt them on Saturday.
The Seattle Seahawks were all at home watching the Eagles and the Saints beat up on each other last week – getting healthy and studying the team that is in their way for a Super Bowl appearance. As if things couldn`t get any better for the Hawks, Percy Harvin has evidentially looked terrific in practice this week and should play this, giving the Seahawks another immense weapon that they didn`t have in the first meeting between the teams. Russell Wilson had a terrific game December 2. He could explode again or just hand the ball off to Marshawn Lynch who could do some damage against the Saints` 19th ranked run defense. The Seahawks offense have been masterful all season long at taking exactly what the opposing defense gives them – you can`t shut everything down – you have to pick your poison and hope it doesn`t kill you!
Seattle`s top ranked NFL defense had its way with New Orleans in the first meeting – 188 yards allowed and a defensive TD by Michael Bennett. Aided by the 12th man in Seattle, there is no reason to think that this unit doesn`t show up again and become an enormous factor in the outcome just like it was December 2.
You have to love the way that New Orleans came out and played last week on the road. But Philadelphia is no Seattle. If you think the Seahawks crowd was amped December 2 imagine what a state they will be in Saturday. Seattle already owns a win over the Saints in the playoffs at CenturyLink – I can`t imagine any scenario that has them losing Saturday. Seattle sucked the will out of Drew Brees and company in the first meeting – the same rings true Saturday. Soft New Orleans team will be hit in the mouth early and often as Seattle sends message to rest of NFC teams.
A few trends to consider:
• Under is 7-1 in NO last 8 games overall.
• Under is 7-1 in NO last 8 vs. NFC.
• SEA are 12-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• SEA are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 vs. NFC.
• SEA are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 home games.
PREDICTED SCORE: New Orleans Saints 17, Seattle Seahawks 35.
> *Indianapolis Colts +10.5* @ New England Patriots...... @ 1.63
= 3.12
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