BEST BETS - NFL PLAYOFFS WEEK 3 2013/14 SEASON.
New England Patriots +6 @ Denver Broncos
It’s only fitting that the 2014 AFC Championship Game comes down to the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots. They finished the regular season with the best two records in the conference, and it’s been a few years since Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have met in the playoffs. Now, perhaps the best quarterbacks of their generation will go head-to-head one more time with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots have been regular participants in the NFL playoffs for many years now, but they have also been regular losers at the betting window in January. Denver is just 2-7 against the spread over its last nine playoff games, while New England is 3-9 ATS over its last 12 postseason contests.
The Patriots and Broncos clash in the AFC Championship Game this Sunday afternoon in Denver.
For the third straight year, New England made quick work of its opponent in the Divisional round coming out of the bye with a blowout win. The Patriots looked sharp on both sides of the ball in a 43-22 win over Indianapolis on Saturday.Their to the rush paid off against the Colts with 234 yards and six rushing touchdowns. While Tom Brady is still the face of this New England offense, Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount have emerged as a legitimate one-two punch in the running game to give this team a balanced attack on offense. Brady is 10-4 SU in games against Peyton Manning, but one of those four losses came the last time these two quarterbacks met in the AFC Championship Game when Manning's Colts beat Brady's Patriots 38-34 in 2006.
Denver just defeated San Diego in an AFC divisional-round game 24-17, grinding out a 17-0 lead, then hanging on from there. The Broncos out-rushed the Chargers 133-65 and held the ball for 35 minutes, only giving up the cover as eight-point favorites on a late Bolts field goal. Like with Brady in New England, Manning and the passing game get most of the media attention. But Denver can bang the ball, too, with Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball. On the season, the Broncos out-rushed foes by 16 yards per game, and as mentioned above, that's a good sign when it comes to covering spreads. Also, the Denver defense has held opponents to a total of 44 points over the last three games, just six points in first halves. The Broncos, who are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 games overall, lost to the Patriots back in November, but they should have won that game. They dominated the first half, grabbing a 24-0 lead, and ended up rushing for 280 yards. When these teams have met in the playoffs, the home team has won and covered all three times. Denver's postseason hiccup against Baltimore last year is officially in the past, and all eyes are now on the future.
Patriots
In the last four meetings with the Broncos, the Patriots have averaged 461.0 yards, 37.8 points and 4.8 offensive touchdowns. The Pats have succeeded with both run-heavy and pass-focused attacks against Denver, which gives them a wide range of game-planning options entering Sunday’s rematch.
In recent weeks, the Patriots have leaned more heavily on their ground game, rushing for 643 yards on 123 carries in their last three games, all victories. The bruising LeGarrette Blount has become their primary tailback, with Stevan Ridley playing a complementary role. The 6-foot, 250-pound Blount, who rushed for 166 yards and four touchdowns in the divisional playoff win vs. Indianapolis, is top form. While Blount and Ridley figure to see a good deal of work on Sunday, don’t be surprised if the Patriots attack with their passing game. Brady thrived in the regular-season matchup with Denver, completing 34 of 50 passes for 344 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. After throwing for just 81 yards in the first two quarters, Brady went to work on a Denver secondary that lost cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at the end of the first half. While Rodgers-Cromartie will be in the lineup Sunday, the Broncos will be without their other starting cornerback, Chris Harris, who suffered an ACL tear in the divisional playoff win vs. San Diego. The Patriots’ passing game is down a major contributor from the first matchup, with tight end Rob Gronkowski also out for the season with an ACL injury. With Gronkowski sidelined, the Broncos can focus on wide receiver Julian Edelman (seven catches, 110 yards, two TDs vs. Denver in November).
Here’s the problem, though: if Denver stacks the box, New England will attack with the pass. If Denver plays pass, New England will pound away with Blount and Ridley. It falls to Broncos defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio to solve the New England riddle. It also falls to Denver’s front four to generate pressure when the Broncos drop seven into coverage. In the first meeting, Brady was sacked three times — twice by outside linebacker Von Miller, another key Denver defensive player now on injured reserve with an ACL tear. On both of Miller’s sacks, the Broncos rushed just four players and Miller quickly got to the quarterback. The Broncos also figure to show some pressure looks. On their other sack of Brady, defensive tackle Kevin Vickerson came free as Denver brought a blitz and New England appeared to make a pass-protection error. The Broncos cannot sit back and allow the Patriots to dictate terms. Denver must take something away from New England and not be overpowered by the Patriots’ counterattack in the process. That’s easier said than done.
Broncos
In their divisional round win vs. the Chargers on Sunday, the Broncos’ offense had just one gain of 20 yards or more. Also, the Broncos left some points on the field, committing two turnovers in San Diego territory and missing a field goal. However, Denver converted nine of 13 third downs, controlled the clock for more than 35 minutes and finished off San Diego with a 10-play drive in the final four minutes in the 24-17 victory.
With good weather expected, the Broncos should be able to employ a pass-focused attack. In the November meeting with New England, Denver emphasized the run in windy and cold conditions, and tailback Knowshon Moreno racked up 224 yards on 37 carries. Moreno and rookie Montee Ball give the Broncos a solid tandem in the backfield, and should the Patriots overplay the pass, Manning will gladly hand the ball off. Nevertheless, when the Broncos have the ball, all eyes will be on Manning and how he performs. He played well in the divisional round win, completing 25 of 36 passes for 250 yards and a pair of scores. However, he turned in a subpar performance in the regular-season matchup vs. the Patriots, throwing for just 150 yards on 19 of 36 passing. The play of Manning’s receiving corps also will be closely watched. Slot receiver Wes Welker, the ex-Patriot, was held to just four catches for 31 yards in the first meeting with his old club. Eric Decker, one of the Patriots’ primary outside receivers, was even quieter, catching one pass for five yards. Tight end Julius Thomas, who was inactive for the first New England game with a knee injury, will be back in the lineup for the rematch, adding to Manning’s options. The Patriots could elect to put top cornerback Aqib Talib on Broncos Pro Bowl wideout Demaryius Thomas, a major playmaking threat. On paper, if the Patriots take away Thomas, the Broncos have the receiving depth necessary to cope, but New England’s deep, versatile secondary gives it a chance to match up pretty well with this formidable opponent.
Aside from the marquee Brady vs. Manning matchup, another battle may prove more decisive in the final outcome of the AFC Championship Game. This epic battle between the two biggest brains in football is sure to span all 60 minutes and will mostly exist undetected by the average fan during the live broadcast. But believe me, at the end of every series, both sidelines will be scrambling ferociously to make adjustments and stay one step ahead of the competition. When not in the game, Peyton’s time will be spent almost exclusively studying photos of the various defensive looks the Patriots throw at him. Meanwhile, Belichick and his defense will continuously scramble to decipher verbal code and the pre-snap checks Manning makes throughout the game. Any attempts to blitz Peyton must be carefully disguised and timed to near perfection or else he will sniff it out and make New England pay. However, if the Pats are able to successfully catch him off guard, it’s very likely they will disrupt the Denver offense significantly. Risk is an unavoidable element in attacking this talent-laden Broncos offense. The trick, then, is to figure out how to get that pressure without letting Manning know it's coming. And pressure up the middle is far more disruptive for the Broncos QB than from the flanks.
With that said, considering the talent surrounding him, the odds are heavily stacked in Manning’s favor. Belichick will ultimately be forced into a game of poker with Manning by going “all in” every time he plays a hand.
Tom Brady vs. Broncos Secondary
The Patriots will need Brady to play extremely well if they are going to advance to their sixth Super Bowl with him under center. He’s beaten this opponent before, engineering an epic comeback from 24 points down at half time to win, 34-31, in overtime back in Week 12, but the location has changed and both teams are different. Brady certainly knows the stakes, having dueled with superstar signal-caller Peyton Manning on 14 prior occasions. While the Pats quarterback has won 10 of those matchups, they have mostly all been tough games that could have gone either way. He owns a 2-1 playoff record over Manning, but the two future Hall of Famers are split in their AFC Championship meetings, with each winning one apiece. Brady was gifted an advantage in this matchup on Sunday after Broncos starting cornerback Chris Harris went down for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. He was replaced by Quentin Jammer in the divisional round against the San Diego Chargers, and Jammer was exploited repeatedly by Philip Rivers and his receivers.
Expect head coach Bill Belichick to take advantage of this and draw up numerous plays designed to target the unproductive veteran defensive back. If successful, the Pats should have an advantage on the scoreboard at the end of regulation.
X-Factor - LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots
Blount has gone absolutely bonkers over the past two games and is developing into the feature back that the Pats need to win a Super Bowl. In the season finale against the Buffalo Bills, this veteran rusher broke out for 189 yards and two scores on 24 touches. He improved upon that in the divisional-round blowout of the Indianapolis Colts, gashing the defense for 166 yards and four scores on the same number of carries.The Broncos rush defense was strong in 2013, ranking No. 8 in the league with only 101.6 yards per game conceded on the ground, but the team will have to alter its game plan and drop more guys into coverage in order to make up for the loss of Harris. If it does that, Blount should be in line for a big day statistically.
This week we are on New England with the points. (+5.5 / 6 )
Manning has struggled against Patriots in his carreer as Bellechik genius schemes have confused him. Great game that should come right down to the wire with one or the other winning by late field goal. Brady has won 10 of 14 matchups against Peyton Manning. He's won most of them with teams inferior to the teams Manning has quarterbacked. Brady can get it done because he has the best running game maybe he's ever had and that Broncos defense isn't great. It's been good in the past month or so but can still be had. But with Manning and the Broncos at home. Look for a ball-control game plan from Manning and an opportunistic Broncos defense as John Fox's team advances to the Super Bowl. They also have a disruptive defense, which is just the thing they'll need to keep Tom Brady off his game. The home-field advantage doesn't hurt, either, but the Patriots won't make it easy......
- Home team has won and covered three playoff meetings of these teams.
- Past four meetings played OVER the total.
- Patriots are 5-1 SU and ATS past six vs Broncos.
- Patriots are 2-7 ATS past nine road games.
- Patriots are 7-2 ATS past nine games as underdogs.
- Broncos have played four straight UNDERs.
- Denver is 8-3 ATS past 11 games overall.
- Broncos are 2-7 ATS past nine playoff games.
- Patriots are 3-9 ATS past 12 playoff games.
- Patriots won and covered eight straight vs AFC West teams.
- Broncos on 0-5 SU and ATS run vs AFC East teams.
PREDICTED SCORE: New England Patriots 27, Denver Broncos 30.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers +3.5
What could be better for a conference championship game than the most heated rivalry in the league at the moment? One that matches two head coaches with a history of animosity that goes back to when they were both college coaches and trickles down to the fans and the cities involved? That's what we have for the NFC Championship Game when Pete Carroll and his Seattle Seahawks host Jim Harbaugh and his San Francisco 49ers on Sunday evening.
The Seahawks are coming off of solid win over the New Orleans Saints. This was a game in which the defense of the Seahawks made its presence felt. They are extremely good. They were able to beat the Saints 23-15, but all 15 points for the Saints came in the final period, making the game a little bit more interesting than it had been.
The 49ers were looking for a little revenge from an earlier lost to the Panthers during the regular season. They lost the first game 10-9. This was a game that started out the same way, but the Niners pulled together on offense and defense. They shut out the Panthers in the second half and scored 10 hard earned points, when it mattered most.
With apologies to fans of the Patriots and Broncos, the two best teams in the NFL won't be meeting in the Super Bowl. Instead, they'll play on Sunday evening in Seattle for the NFC title, as the San Francisco 49ers take on Seattle Seahawks in what's become the NFL's most heated and physical rivalry. This will be the third meeting between the 49ers and Seahawks this season. In Week 2, the Seahawks dominated, winning 29-3, which made the overall score total of their last two games at CenturyLink Field 71-16 in favor of the home team. But in Week 14, the 49ers triumphed at Candlestick Park in a 19-17 thriller. On Sunday, they'll face off in the rubber match for the right to go to the Super Bowl. Forget about the Seahawks having the league's best home-field advantage. Forget about the 12th Man. Forget about 71-16.
The 49ers are going to go into Seattle and beat the Seahawks and advance to their second consecutive Super Bowl.....
49ers
It's almost hard to believe, but the defending conference champions are the team that's been playing under the radar. The Niners hit some minor turbulence back in November, losing two games in a row.
But since then, they've won eight games in a row, including two straight on the road in the playoffs.
San Francisco beat the Packers in Green Bay on Wild Card Weekend and just knocked off Cam Newton and the Panthers in Carolina. QB Colin Kaepernick caught some flak earlier this year, but he's been great lately, making good reads, making almost all of the throws and using his legs to pick up key first downs. He's also thrown just two interceptions over this eight-game winning streak. For the season, the 49ers have out-rushed opponents by 42 yards per game. They have shown that controlling the ball is a good way to win games and cover spreads. San Francisco has the look and feel of a team of destiny, and it's playing its best football of the season when it matters most. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has escalated his game to dizzying heights, and the run game and defense are humming on all cylinders. Plus, the team has Jim Harbaugh, who is the only coach to lead a team to the conference championship game in his first three seasons on the sideline.
Seahawks
Following its 23-15 victory over New Orleans in an NFC divisional-round game on Sunday, Seattle is now 26-9 straight-up, 24-11 ATS with Russell Wilson at quarterback. It's also 16-1 SU and 12-5 ATS with Wilson quarterbacking at home. Needless to say, the Seahawks love playing in front of that 12th man. Seattle just ran for 174 yards against the Saints and, on the season, has averaged 137 yards per game on the ground. Add that to the No. 1-ranked defense in the league, and it's easy to see how the Seahawks have gotten this far. Over the last two seasons, these teams have split their four games, each team winning twice on its home field. But Seattle is 4-0 ATS over that span, because it won two blowouts at home and lost two close games at the 'Stick. They are 8-2 ATS in 10 home games against the Niners and look to make it 9-2 Sunday.
Wilson vs Kaepernick.
The quarterback matchup in the NFC Championship Game is in stark contrast to the AFC iteration. While the Patriots and Broncos feature two surefire, first-ballot Hall of Famers, the San Francisco 49ers (Colin Kaepernick) and Seattle Seahawks (Russell Wilson) have two up-and-coming young guns who are clearly on a path toward greatness.
Wilson has gotten the better of Kaepernick thus far, holding a 2-1 record against him. Both wins came at CenturyLink Field, which is where Sunday's NFC Championship tilt will be contested. That would appear to give Wilson the advantage. But in the end, it'll be Kaepernick who makes more big plays and leads his team to the Super Bowl.
It's important to note that the hoopla surrounding Wilson's recent run of poor form has been overblown. Yes, he only threw for 103 yards last week against New Orleans, but the game plan didn't call for him to air it out 40 times. When the lights are brightest and it matters the most, Wilson plays his best, and he's proven that throughout his young career. Expect him to sparkle on Sunday. The problem is that Kaepernick will also dazzle. He's played tremendous football over the course of the 49ers' eight-game winning streak, buoyed by the return of wide receiver Michael Crabtree. Over the last eight games, he's tossed 12 touchdown passes against only two interceptions. He has also the poise and wherewithal to handle both the Seattle defense and crowd. Kaepernick will out-duel Wilson, and he'll start in his second consecutive Super Bowl.
Harbaugh vs. Carroll
This is the seventh meeting in the NFL between these former college rivals. Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers are 4-2 against the Seahawks under Pete Carroll. But Seattle has covered the spread in the last four. The last two games between these teams in Seattle have both been lopsided Seahawks victories. Harbaugh led Stanford to two upset victories over Carroll’s heavily-favored Southern Cal teams when the two coaches were both in the Pac-12. Stanford was a 39-point underdog when the Cardinal beat USC 24-23 in 2007, Harbaugh’s first season. It was the biggest straight-up upset of the BCS era.
In 2009, the Cardinal ran it up on Trojans in a 55-21 win in Los Angeles, prompting Carroll to condescendingly ask Harbaugh “what’s your deal” during the post-game handshake. You can watch the video of that incident on YouTube.
X-Factor - Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
In the San Francisco 49ers' Week 14 win over the Seahawks, running back Frank Gore had the play of the game, scampering for 51 yards on a 4th-and-1 on the final drive, which set up a Phil Dawson field goal as time expired. That run was part of a 110-yard day from Gore on the ground, and it's no surprise the 49ers beat Seattle when he had success running the football. In Week 2, when the Seahawks crushed the 49ers, Gore only rushed for 16 yards on nine carries. There's no question he'll need to play well if the 49ers are to advance to their second consecutive Super Bowl. And he will. Gore will make another game-changing run and eclipse the 100-yard mark in a 49ers victory. San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh is in awe of Gore, telling Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com:
"My admiration is as high as my admiration can be. But then every time I think he's 10 out of 10 in that regard he finds another wrung on the ladder. I think he is a mystical man. I think he sees things that we don't, I don't, we don't see."
On Sunday, the mystical man won't have success at first as he rushes into the heart of the Seahawks defense. But over the course of four quarters, he'll begin to wear them down, and by the final stanza, he'll be ready to explode. As the game winds down, Gore will make a game-changing run, similar to his 51-yard burst in Week 14, setting up a Phil Dawson field goal that will ultimately provide the game's winning margin.
The 49ers have proven they can win on the road this year and even better San Francisco is an amzing 8-2 ATS in road games this year. Close hard fought game as both Seahawks and Niners play amazing defense, no love lost in this hard hitting slugfest. Seattle has struggled in recent weeks to run the ball and think that holds them back from Super Bowl for 2nd straight season.
Take the points and the Niners.
- Niners have won three straight playoff road games.
- Seahawks won six straight playoff home games.
- Seahawks have played five straight UNDERs when favoured.
- Seahawks are 21-3 SU past 24 games as favourites.
- UNDER is 6-1 past seven Seahawks games vs. NFC West foes.
- 49ers won five straight vs. NFC West foes (4-1 ATS).
- Seattle is 8-2 ATS past 10 at home to San Francisco.
- 49ers are 7-3-1 ATS past 11 times as an underdog.
PREDICTED SCORE: San Francisco 49ers 22, Seattle Seahawks 20.
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