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- Best bets - NFL Week 12
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Best bets - Week 13 College Football
Michigan State -6.5 @ Northwestern.
Michigan State (9-1 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) is coming off a 41-28 win at Nebraska as 5.5-point favorites. The Cornhuskers had more total yards (392-361), but helped give the game away by losing the turnover margin 5-0.
The Spartans' offense is not explosive, ranking 53rd nationally in points (30.9 PPG). They feature junior running back Jeremy Langford (926 yards), who has gone over the 100-yard mark the last five games, while sophomore quarterback Connor Cook (1,683 yards 127.4 rating) makes big throws when needed.
Northwestern's defense ranks 74th nationally (412.6 YPG). The unit does have 18 picks, tops in the Big Ten, but Cook has thrown just three on the season. Look for another conservative offensive game plan from the Spartans, figuring they won't need to score 30 points to win.
The Wildcats (4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) started the season 4-0, but now need to win their final two games to be bowl eligible. Northwestern is struggling with its two-quarterback system of the passing Trevor Siemian and the running Kain Colter. Michigan State's defense (228.4 YPG) is still ranked first in the country, but Nebraska exposed some chinks in the armor, including 123 rushing yards by running back Ameer Abdullah. Look for Sparty's defense to play with something to prove on Saturday.
Michigan State is the wrong defense for a struggling two-QB system like Northwestern's to try and get better against. MSU is allowing only 228 yards and 13 points per game, while Northwestern has lost six straight and covered only once in their last eight games. In their first five games, the Wildcats averaged 35 points, but in their last five, only 15 per game.
Key Trends:
- Wildcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
- Wildcats are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Spartans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Spartans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
- Spartans are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.
- Spartans are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
- Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Northwestern.
- Road team is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Predicted Score: Michigan State 27, Northwestern 14.
SMU - 4 @ South Florida.
With their post-season hopes fading by the week, SMU hopes to make a final push towards bowl eligibility this weekend. SMU got back on track this past weekend with a dominant win at home over lowly UConn 38-21.
SMU (4-5, 3-2 AAC) has looked a lot better in the second half of the season, with the offense rallying around Garrett Gilbert and his strong passing game. The Mustangs are still not ready to compete with the big boys, though.
South Florida (2-7, 2-3), meanwhile, is a bad team that had a brief moment of decency in early October. The offense is mostly lethargic, making any efforts that come from defense get wasted, a big reason the Bulls are having their third straight losing season. South Florida’s early season struggles have begun to take shape once again as the Bulls have lost three games in a row and failed to be competitive in all three. This past weekend, the Bulls let a Memphis team that has struggled on the road this year come into town and get a 23-10 win.
The South Florida Bulls have not much chance this week as the SMU high flying offense scores at will verse the Bulls defense. South Florida has one quality win against Cincinnati early in the year but since then has yet to repeat that performance. SMU has killed itself with turnovers this year but against terrible USF defense it won't happen this week. SMU gets to .500 and keeps their fleeting bowl hopes alive.
Key Trends:
- SMU is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 conference games.
- USF is 7-18-1 against the spread in their last 26 games against the spread on grass.
- Over is 5-1 in Mustangs last 6 games overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 vs a team with a losing record.
- USF is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
Predicted Score: SMU 34, USF 20.
HeadtoHead Multi*
> Missouri Tigers* @ Mississippi
> Illinois* @ Purdue.
** = 2.41
HeadtoHead (singles)
Missouri Tigers* -- 1.75 @ Mississippi
Utah @ Washington State* -- 1.80
Other plays to consider;
Illinois -7 @ Purdue.
Bowling Green - 24.5 @ Eastern Michigan.
Missouri -2.5 @ Mississippi.
Kansas +6 @ Iowa State.
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