2013 MAC Championship Game - BEST BET.

TBM. CFB

Please check back and enjoy in the coming days TBM's following posts:

• Best Bets week 15/14 CFB & NFL.
• WWE - TLC TOP10.

MAC TITLE

6th December

 

**UPDATE**

Bowling Green Falcons @ (14) Northern Illinois Huskies

The Bowling Green Falcons match up against the Northern Illinois Huskies on Friday night in the MAC Championship Game, which looks to be an entertaining game. The Falcons have had a good season with a 9-3 record, but they have their work cut out for them at the end of the workweek with the Huskies and their 12-0 record. The Huskies have had a perfect season, and they are not likely to roll over and let the Falcons foul it up for them at the end of the run. NIU is actually 7-10 against Bowling Green all time. They had a hell of a rivalry in the early part of last decade with Huskies beating an Urban Meyer-led squad in 2002 that was ranked #20 and then having the Falcons extract some revenge the next year in 2003 beating the Huskies when they were ranked #12 in the BCS. It was starting to become a hell of a rivalry until BGSU jumped to the other side of the MAC divisions.

THE BET:

**Losing Play**

Northern Illinois -3

Final Score: Bowling Green 47, Northern Illinois 27.



Preview & Prediction

There's not much that can be said about the Huskies' prolific offense that hasn't already been said. They lead the MAC in scoring with 42.8 points per game and have scored 66 touchdowns in 12 games -- an average of 5.5 per contest. NIU generates 542.3 yards of offense per game, 56 yards more than their next closest competitor. They've run the most plays (918) and have the best yards-per-play average (9.1). Their season rushing total (3,827) is 940 more than the second-best team in the league, and their total offense (6,508) is just shy of 700 yards more than the next-best.

Northern Illinois ranks first in the league in rushing but only fifth in passing -- but don't let that deceive you. NIU's passing attack is one of the most efficient in the MAC, generating a completion percentage of 64.1, 7.8 yards per attempt, and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 27 to 5. And all of it, both running and passing, goes right throughJordan Lynch. Lynch is the epitome of a dual-threat player. He leads the MAC with 1,755 rushing yards and has had TWO 300-yard rushing days this season alone. Most players never have even one in their entire career. He also throws for 200 yards per game, and thus leads the MAC in total offense per game with 351 yards. Only two other players in the league have as many as 250 -- Keith Wenning and another guy in this game who we'll hear about later.

Of course, if you thought that Lynch was NIU's only weapon, well...sorry for you. If Lynch isn't running the ball, then Camer Stingily is, to the tune of 91.5 yards per game and 1,007 for the season. When Lynch is throwing, it's often to Tommy Lewis. Lynch has 212 completions this year, and more than one in every three has gone to Lewis. Lewis' 74 catches (in just 10 games) don't generate flashy numbers like some of his counterparts around the league, but he's incredibly reliable. And he's back for this game.

Bowling Green is very astute on this side of the ball, ranking 27th nationally in offense with 464 ypg. The rushing offense ranks 24th and the passing offense ranks 40th. QB Matt Johnson has been very effective on the year throwing for 234 ypg with 18 TDs and 7 INTs. He ranks second in the MAC in passing efficiency. WR Shaun Joplin has been his biggest target so far this season with 47 catches for 807 yds (67.3 ypg). RB Travis Greene is a beast in the backfield rushing for 1,422 yds (119 ypg) on the ground and 10 TDs on the season. This game is going to be a tough go especially early on. Both teams might have trouble moving the ball in such a big type of game. Defenses have been able to shut down Jordan Lynch at times during the season, but this is probably his biggest test. The weather won't be a factor but will he have time to throw this week? Tommy Lee Lewis is back, so that should help out the offense a bit. The key here will be not to make the big mistake, the turnover to give BGSU the victory. 

Take the Huskies.

Key Trends:

• Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 
• Huskies are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. 
• Huskies are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 
• Huskies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 
• Huskies are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 conference games. 
• Falcons are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. 
• Falcons are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall. 
• Falcons are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Preview & Prediction - Bowling Green Falcons 21, Northern Illinois Huskies 27.