Saturday 21 December 2013

New Orleans Bowl - Best Bet - Tulane vs UL Lafayette 2/21/13

TBM. NCAAF.


R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - Tulane vs UL Lafayette 2/21/13


   


The state of Louisiana ought to be hopping up and down over the next RL Carriers New Orleans Bowl coming up. The match will include an intrastate match between two Louisiana teams versus outsiders for a change. UL Lafayette comes into the match as a veteran of the New Orleans Bowl game, and they have a respectable 8-3 record to ensure their eligibility for the 2013 match. Last two years the Ragin Cajuns have rolled to two straight New Orleans Bowl victories and now they try to make it 3-0. Tulane's Green Wave, however, don't seem like a strong match with a 7-5 record for the season. However, the Green Wave has had far more bowl game experience than Lafayette but most of that success was years ago. Last bowl appearance for Tulane was 2002 with Hawaii Bowl win.

 THE BET:






Tulane Green Wave -2













Preview & Prediction


Although the overall record won’t necessarily show it, Tulane was an absolute beast against the spread this season. The Green Wave was 9-3 against the number and lost just once with the spread after Sept. 21. On the other side of the results spectrum, LA-Lafayette comes in having lost its last two games and didn't without cover after Oct. 22. The Ragin’ Cajuns are also 1-4 in their last five games against Tulane. Although Lafayette is a better offensive team, Tulane seems to be the better overall team for this matchup. Tulane doesn't have much to tout for itself on the offensive side, its defense has seen a significant improvement, which allowed the team to turn around its fortune to being ahead in the 2013 stats versus losing more games.

This plays out as nearly a home game for the Tulane (7-5) and UL Lafayette (8-4). I expect a big crowd on hand Saturday night to cheer on the Green Wave as they go bowling for the first time since 2002. I am looking for Tulane to get their revenge for LYs 41-13 loss. QB Nick Montana, yeah Joe's son turned Tulane from 2-10 last year to 7-5 this season. For UL-Lafayette, their top signal caller, Terrance Broadway had surgery on his arm a couple weeks. If he plays, he won't be 100%. And with a pair of red-shirt freshman backing him up, I am leaning heavy on the Green Wave defense. Tulane's defense very opportunistic as they are #3 in the nation in getting turnovers. 


Between the solid defense play, and a superior special teams, I expect Tulane to get their revenge tonight. The Green Wave end the Ragin Cajuns dominance over the New Orleans bowl as Nick Montana continues to lead Tulane to great 2013 season. Montana has the same Joe Cool touch of his dad and he shows it off leading Green Wave to first bowl victory in over 10 years. 


Key Trends:
  • Green Wave are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 5-0-1 in Green Wave last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Ragin' Cajuns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • The Ragin’ Cajuns are 1-4 in their last five games against Tulane.
  • Over is 4-0 in Ragin' Cajuns last 4 non-conference games.


Preview & Prediction - Tulane Green Wave 24, UL Lafayette 17.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                 



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