Saturday 28 December 2013

28/12/2013 College Football Bowl Games - BEST BETS.

TBM. CFB

***UPDATED***

Please check back and enjoy in the coming days TBM's following posts:

  • Best Bets NFL week 17 -- coming today!
  • TBM's WWE End of 2013 Awards.






Michigan Wolverines vs.  Kansas State Wildcats

FINAL SCORE: Michigan Wolverines 14, Kansas State 31.

Bill Snyder is one of the most respected head coaches in college football. What he's done at once-dormant Kansas State has been remarkable. But during his second tenure with the Wildcats, Coach Snyder and his troops haven’t managed to win a bowl game. 
The 'Cats are 0-3 both straight up and against the spread the last three seasons. 


Kansas State will try to put an end to that streak when they take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.



THE BET:  


*BEST BET WINNER*

                                              TOTAL MATCH POINTS - UNDER 56.5



Preview & Score Prediction.

Michigan and Kansas State meet in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. Michigan scored 41 on Ohio State the last game and gave up 42, but the under is 5-1 in the Wolverines last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. And this Michigan offense has been mostly awful of late, scoring 6, 13, 9, and 14 points in regulation the previous four games. And for this game they have to go with a freshman QB as Devin Gardner (turf toe) won't play. Kansas State has a good defense and is a run-first offense, 4-1 under the total in the Wildcats last 5 neutral site games. The under is also 4-0 in the Wildcats last four games on grass and this shapes up as a defensive battle. Play Michigan/Kansas State under the total.


Key Trends:
  • Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
  •  4-1 under the total in the Wildcats last 5 neutral site games. 
  • Under is 4-0 in Wildcats last 4 games on grass.
  • Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12.

Preview & Prediction - Michigan Wolverines 20, Kansas State 28.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             


**UPDATED**




 Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish


FINAL SCORE: Rutgers Scarlet Knights 16, Notre Dame 29.


Notre Dame's Fighting Irish are playing in a bowl for the fourth straight season under coach Brian Kelly and for the eighth time in the last 11 seasons. But Notre Dame hasn't had much luck in bowls recently, going just 2-9 both straight-up and against the spread in bowls. 
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are relative newcomers to this bowl thing, but they seem to have the hang of it. The Knights are 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven bowl appearances.

Notre Dame and Rutgers meet in the Pinstripe Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx withthe Irish
favourite.

THE BET:  

*BEST BET WINNER*

TOTAL MATCH POINTS - UNDER 53.5


Preview & Score Prediction.



Looking at this game Notre Dame can not be excited to be here and the fact that they were 116th in plays per game this year I'm not worried about them running up the score. Meanwhile Rutgers has been elite at stopping the run even against some of the better teams on their schedule like Arkansas who is a very good running team. That does not fit Notre Dame well because they have struggled to run the ball and when they put up a ton of points this year it had more to do with them being able to run the ball. Rutgers is one of the worst pass defenses they have faced ranked 111th in QB rating and fits Tommy Rees well, but the 3 other bad pass defences he faced ranked 124th, 104th, and 101st where he put up 45, 28, and 38 points two of those games were at home and not one of those teams was in the top 80 in run defense. Tommy Rees is better when he has play action and a balanced attack. I see Notre Dame between 28 and 35 points while I see Rutgers between 10 and 17 and even at 35-17 we are still under the total. The under is 15-3 in Rutgers last 18 games following a SU win by 20+ and 7-1 in their last 8 vs. Independent teams while Notre Dame is 35-15-1 on the under in their last 51 on grass. Notre Dame will win in an ugly turnover filled game but covering this many points is just too much to ask.


Key Trends:
  • Under is 7-1 in Scarlet Knights last 8 vs. INDEP.
  • Under is 15-3 in Rutgers last 18 games following a SU win by 20+.
  • 7-1 in their last 8 vs. Independent teams.
  • Notre Dame is 35-15-1 on the under in their last 51 on grass. 

Preview & Prediction - Rutgers Scarlet Knights 17, Notre Dame Fighting Irish 27.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                 

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