TBM. NFL
**UPDATED**
Best bets - Week 13 NFL
*** BEST BET WINNER ***
Tampa Bay @ Carolina -7
FINAL SCORE: Tampa Bay 6, Carolina 27.
Preview and Prediction
Carolina is 8-3 for a very simple reason; they do almost everything better than their opponents. Carolina played Tampa Bay back October 24th and soundly beat the Bucs 31-13. Glennon threw 51 times in that game and that effort cost the Bucs any chance of winning. Since that October 24th game, has peeled off 4 straight wins right at the end of a 7 game win streak. Cam Newton is making ALL the right moves on offense. Wideout Steve Smith has injected style and panache’ in each Panther game during their current winning streak. Combining Newton’s great choices and Smith’s flair has resulted in back-to-back beatings upon the New England Patriots and the San Francisco 49’ers. But the stifling defense of the Panthers is the HUGE story this year around Charlotte. The defense is 1st in points against in the NFL, 3rd in total yards allowed, 2nd in turnovers, number 3 in rushing yards allowed, and 2nd with both passing TD’s allowed and rushing TD’s allowed! The Panthers defense is electric, punishing, suffocating, and any other crass ‘ing’ ending word you wish to use.
I will hit you with a little reality check about our rookie led Tampa squad. The fact is, this team is in a prime let-down spot. They went on a road and beat a decent Lions team with some timely turnovers. The Bucs were out-gained 390-229! They forced INTs and recovered a fumble. One of the INTs went for a TD. Bucs with interceptions on the 1, the 15 and with under a minute on the 3. Do you expect Cam Newton to be throwing the ball like Stafford? That isn't happening. Neither is Tampa forcing 5 turnovers.
On the flip side we get a rookie QB vs a very aggressive and very good Carolina defense. As nice as Bobby Rainey has been the last few weeks, the guy is still the 3rd string RB for the Bucs. Do we think that Tampa is talented enough on offense to beat this Carolina defence? I don't think so Tampa is off its first road win of the season. Very good teams win back to back games on the road. Not teams that lose 8 straight.
On the flip side we get a rookie QB vs a very aggressive and very good Carolina defense. As nice as Bobby Rainey has been the last few weeks, the guy is still the 3rd string RB for the Bucs. Do we think that Tampa is talented enough on offense to beat this Carolina defence? I don't think so Tampa is off its first road win of the season. Very good teams win back to back games on the road. Not teams that lose 8 straight.
Key Trends:
- Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- Panthers are 13-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Favourite is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
- Bucs are 4-4 ATS in their last 8 games as the underdog.
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16, Carolina Panthers 34.
**BEST BET LOSER***
Atlanta Falcons @ Buffalo Bills -3
FINAL SCORE: Atlanta Falcons 34, Buffalo Bills 31. (OT)
Preview and Prediction
E.J. Manuel.
He’s 3-4 this year, even if you count the loss to the Browns, where he left early with an injury. His losses were: close ones to NE, NYJ and a not-so-close one to the Steelers. He beat the Panthers, Ravens and Jets. Those are all good defences (except the Steelers, who played well that week). I’m not saying he’s some sort of god, but the point is, when the Bills have had their quarterback, they’ve been pretty good. Any game quarterbacked by Jeff Tuel should be forgotten.
Their success is mainly because of their defence. This is a genuinely good defense, ranked No. 7 in DVOA (4th against the pass, something that Matt Ryan does occasionally). They give up just 5.1 yards per play (Atlanta gives up 6.1!). They have a good pass rush, a decent run defense… and are genuinely good all around. Kiko Alonso has 947 tackles, 17 interceptions and 42 Luftballons. Atlanta’s defence might be the worst defence in the league. They don’t stop anybody. They won’t stop the Bills. Matt Ryan will have to win this game by himself, on the road, something that seems unlikely against a very good defence.
Buffalo has played the second-most difficult schedule the last four weeks but out-gained those opponents by nearly 40 YPG. That tells us they are still playing hard for first-year coach Doug Marrone and his staff. The Falcons struggles have cost their NFL betting backers money recently as Atlanta is on a 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS run. The Falcons are also 1-5-1 ATS on the road. The Bills are 6-1 ATS their last seven home games and the side to support this week....take the Bills.
Predicted Score: Atlanta Falcons 16, Buffalo Bills 27.
(singles)
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